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Originally Posted by betovernetcapper

You are right sir. They did update to use the best of the last 3 years.

I disagree with you about the Beyer figs however. Everyone who makes figures thinks there's are the best, but Beyer has stood the test of time. Re turf races,
final time is not really all your looking for in grass races. Many grass races end in a blanket finish with all the horses getting similar numbers. As Beyer has said in grass racing the final fraction is more important then the final time.

 

Since you disagree, I would like to know your answer to the following questions in regards to Beyer Speed figure creation ( I can ask many more questions but for now let's start from these)..

(1) What are the parallel time curves that are used?

Obviously what he states in his books are not only completely out of date but also do not cover difficult cases. The examples he provides refer to very soft cases, like for example six to seven furlongs on dirt but there is not a word about how to treat real world cases where we have very few races for a specific surface / distance.

(2) How cross - track adjustments are estimated?

He writes on "Beyer On Speed":

Quote:

Originally Posted by "Beyer On Speed" (p.23)

"I analyzed southern and northern California and saw that the average shipper was running two points higher than north...."

 

Does this mean that all southern Cal tracks are averaging to the same figure?
Does the same apply for northern? How shippers from other tracks are to be considered? How you handle shippers from a track who has very few or no shippers at all?

(3) Although Bayer claims that "class" represents a fictitious quality, he still uses it as the starting point for his figure creation, taking a specific classification as the base for his scale (He assigns the arbitrary number of 80 to the average 10K claimer). Is not this a contradiction to the "speed" approach?

(4) The value of a length in the Beyer methodology reflects the percentage worth of a fifth (moved by two decimal places) in comparison to the base (parallel) time of the race in fifths (converted to fifths, or in other words the figure is given by the following algorithm:

value_of_point = 1000. / (base_time * 5)
time_delta_in_fifths = base_time - time
points_delta = time_delta_in_fifths * value_of_point
figure = int(round(80. + points_delta))

How does he arrive in this formula and more precisely why he needs to use the full time of the race instead of a fraction of it (for example the last half of the race or something similar)? What is the impact of this approach as the distance becomes larger?

Let me make it clear that at no point I have the intention of downgrade the greatness of Beyer's work whom I consider the most influential handicapper ever and the patriarch of the American handicappers. I am just tring to make the case that his figures (that probably worked fine before they became part of the DRF) are antiquated and there is a lot of room for improvement for those who have the required knowledge and time to work on them.