欧博百家乐Horse Racing Message Board
Maybe you can just list 5 of the most glaring reasons why the DRF Speed Rating / Variant is antiquated...I could go round in circles and scratch the hair off my head just speculating on all to no avail....I will thank you in advance for the cerebral short-cuts here, Delta...where better minds prevail, one must remain silent..:coffee:
The are a few reasons why DRF is a very misleading metric.
The most important flow that is also very easy to realize, lies in the fact that all the races of the day are compared against a specific number. Regardless of whether a race is a Grade 1 or a Maiden claiming for three year old fillies, they both will be used in exactly the same fashion, resulting in very wrong conclusions.
It is trivial to verify this theory if you simply calculate the average variant based on the day of the week; doing so, you will discover that Saturdays, when the best quality horses are running always result to significant lower variant than any other day of the week.
An immediate remedy to this distortion, would be to use more specific targets, for example the average final time based on the conditions of the race or something similar.
Another very naive mistake has to do with the way beaten lengths are used across distances, as it is known since the mid 70s when Beyer published his first book, the value of length decreases as distance grows.